Trend Stability Assessment for Hydrological Drought in Euphrates Basin (Türkiye) Using TripleWilcoxon Test and Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

Abstract

This study investigates the stability of hydrological drought trends in the Euphrates Basin from 1960 to 2020 using three-dimensional (3D) graphical representations based on innovative trend analysis (ITA) and triple Wilcoxon test (WT) methods. Unlike traditional ITA and WT, which are widely used for trend identification but do not inherently provide trend stability information, this study employs a novel approach to assess and visualize trend stability. The Triple WT method divides the data into three equal segments, examining differences without altering the time series. Drought indices are calculated for 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month time scales using historical streamflow data from five stations. The research identifies trends and their stabilities across three distinct periods: 1967–1984, 1985–2002, and 2003–2020. Results show that as the time scale increases, trend differences between extreme drought conditions diminish. One station consistently exhibits significantly decreasing trends, while three stations show unstable trends with notable variations in the standardized streamflow index (SSFI). The use of 3D-ITA and Triple WT effectively captures the dynamics and stability of drought trends, offering a deeper understanding of hydrological drought in the Euphrates Basin. These findings provide a reference for future studies on drought trend mechanisms in various climatic regions.